Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Honduras
  • Canada
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Trinidad and Tobago

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $874,171$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{896,000.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(896,000.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $87,415$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,354.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.0)}}\) (asimptote \(88,354.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,319$ on 2020-10-22

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,407,702$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,373,486.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 152.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,373,486.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $223,032$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215,867.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 93.6)}}\) (asimptote \(215,867.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,831,614$ on 2020-10-22

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $127,227$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130,245.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 144.4)}}\) (asimptote \(130,245.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,612$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,697.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 142.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,697.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,217$ on 2020-10-22

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,509$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,945.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(90,945.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,604$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,694.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 134.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,694.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,773$ on 2020-10-22

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $211,617$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,562.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 101.8)}}\) (asimptote \(175,562.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,916$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,162.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,162.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,402$ on 2020-10-22

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $100,616$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,050.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 194.6)}}\) (asimptote \(126,050.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,251$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,646.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 191.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,646.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,203$ on 2020-10-22

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $122,873$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,603.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.8)}}\) (asimptote \(126,603.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,212$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,797.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,797.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,741$ on 2020-10-22

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,172$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,715.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 136.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,715.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,580$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,431.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 115.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,431.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,927$ on 2020-10-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 71%
Dominican Republic recovered 44%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 40%
Panama recovered 17%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,262$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,924.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 125.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,924.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $936$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{913.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 124.3)}}\) (asimptote \(913.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,422$ on 2020-10-22

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,446$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,498.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 181.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,498.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 179.0)}}\) (asimptote \(115.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,467$ on 2020-10-22