Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $874,171$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{896,000.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(896,000.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $87,415$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,354.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.0)}}\) (asimptote \(88,354.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,319$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,407,702$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,373,486.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 152.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,373,486.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $223,032$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215,867.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 93.6)}}\) (asimptote \(215,867.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,831,614$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $127,227$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130,245.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 144.4)}}\) (asimptote \(130,245.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,612$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,697.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 142.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,697.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,217$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $91,509$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,945.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(90,945.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,604$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,694.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 134.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,694.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,773$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $211,617$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,562.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 101.8)}}\) (asimptote \(175,562.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,916$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,162.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,162.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,402$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $100,616$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,050.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 194.6)}}\) (asimptote \(126,050.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,251$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,646.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 191.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,646.9\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $38,203$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $122,873$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,603.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.8)}}\) (asimptote \(126,603.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,212$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,797.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,797.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,741$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,172$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,715.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 136.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,715.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,580$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,431.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 115.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,431.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,927$ on 2020-10-22